Mucchetti: Etruria e Mps, i miracoli mancati di Renzi ci costano 800 milioni

By | agosto 3, 2016

Mucchetti: Etruria e Mps, i miracoli mancati di Renzi ci costano 800 milioni

La Corte dei conti dà l`allarme sul ruolo assunto dalla Cassa depositi (Cdp) e prestiti nel settore bancario. Matteo Renzi non se ne cura e preannuncia il rilancio del Monte dei Paschi per mano del mercato. Sarebbe meglio se, pur difendendola Cdp, il premier desse conto al Paese di quanto bolle nella pentola che la magistratura contabile vorrebbe scoperchiare. Proviamoci noi, cominciando da Banca Etruria e dalle altre tre “banchette”.
Avendo subito le riserve informali della direzione generale della Concorrenza, e cioè della burocrazia Ue, anziché negoziare un salvataggio in continuità aziendale conla Commissione europea, il governo ha avviato una procedura di risoluzione: dalle quattro “banchette” sono state ricavate una Bad Bank, alla quale sono assegnati i crediti in sofferenza, e una Good Bank, che sta cercando di salvare il salvabile. Entro il 30 settembre 2016, dice la Bce, la banca buona va venduta.
Sul tavolo ci sono le offerte di due fondi di private equity da 400 milioni, più o meno. Si potrà cedere pure la banca cattiva, per 3-400 milioni. Qualcuno potrebbe stupirsi dell`equivalenza delle stime, ma ai tempi dei tassi zero il ritorno sul capitale investito in sofferenze già svalutate al 18 per cento del valore facciale minaccia di essere più alto di quello ricavabile dalla normale attività creditizia. Comunque sia, i conti non tornano.
Prestiti
da rimborsare
L`Autorità di risoluzione ha assegnato alla procedura 3,6 miliardi finanziandosi, quanto a 2,1 miliardi, attraverso l`anticipo delle somme dovute da tutte le banche al Fondo di risoluzione nei prossimi quattro anni, e quanto ai restanti1,5 miliardi attraverso un prestito ottenuto da Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit e Ubi. Se ai versamenti anticipati al Fondo si può dire addio, non si può evitare di rimborsare il prestito.
Le tre banche creditrici hanno in tasca la garanzia della Cdp. Nelle ore concitate dell`intervento dell`Autorità di risoluzione, la Cdp non poteva sottrarsi al grido di dolore del governo. Ma se ora fosse chiamata a onorare la garanzia, la Cdp perderebbe 7-800 milioni. Un gran brutto affare nel momento in cui i titoli di Stato rendono pochissimo e i dividendi delle partecipate calano. Forse anche un problema di fronte alla Ue per un`istituzione che, pur controllata dal Tesoro, si intende fuori dal perimetro delle pubbliche amministrazioni e poi partecipa a un`operazione in perdita, dettata dal governo. La soluzione logica sarebbe quella di non vendere le quattro “banchette” a settembre e di guadagnare il tempo che serve al loro rilancio.
Il gerente Roberto Nicastro è bravo tanto quanto i manager dei private equity, anzi di più. Diversamente, se
non si vuole impiccare la Cdp alla garanzia, l`Autorità di risoluzione dovrà chiamare il sistema bancario ad anticipare altri due anni di versamenti per rimborsare le banche creditrici. Si arriverebbe così a 6 anni di anticipi, ossia a una perdita consolidata di quasi 3 miliardi concentrata su due esercizi, per sistemare meno dell`i per cento del sistema bancario. Si può sperare che qualche banca si accolli le 4 “banchette” pagandole 7-800 milioni più dei fondi di private equity? Si può, ma ci vorrebbe un concorso di circostanze tale da rasentare il miracolo.
Tutti i buchi nella
“soluzione” per Mps

Su un altro miracolo, al momento, il governo conta anche per il caso, ben più grave, del Monte dei Paschi. Renzi scommette sulla sottoscrizione, da parte del mercato, di un aumento di capitale di 5 miliardi all`esito della cessione delle sofferenze. Dà l`operazione per fatta, ma siamo ancora a carissimo amico. Intanto, la pre-garanzia di Jp Morgan e Mediobanca è lungi dall`essere una garanzia.
Questa può essere data solo da un consorzio di collocamento e garanzia abbastanza numeroso, non certo dalle
due banche promotrici da sole. Le assenze di Intesa e Unicredit, perché impegnate nel fondo Atlante, di Ubs,
in conflitto con Mediobanca, e di Morgan Stanley, che non vede il suo tornaconto, certo non aiutano. Ma ben altre sono le incertezze che rendono difficile formare il consorzio di garanzia.
La prima deriva dal processo di cessione dei crediti in sofferenza, che si profila lungo e farraginoso. L`equilibrio dei prezzi delle tre tranche di obbligazioni che avranno come sottostante le sofferenze – la tranche senior per le migliori, le mezzanine per le intermedie, le junior per le peggiori – si formerà solo quando le agenzie di rating avranno espresso la loro valutazione e dunque si saprà, per esempio, a quanto ammonta davvero la tranche senior assistita dalla garanzia pubblica. Campa cavallo. Jp Morgan e Mediobanca promettono un prestito ponte da qui alla cessione, ma ancora non ne hanno chiarito le condizioni. Che saranno, c`è da scommetterci data la situazione, assai onerose.
La seconda incertezza viene dalla garanzia in quanto tale. Il mercato coprirà tutti e 5 i miliardi o si renderà necessaria una garanzia pubblica di secondo grado, anche solo per una quota dell`emissione azionaria? Le oggettive difficoltà nel formare il consorzio di collocamento e garanzia inducono a prevedere una garanzia pubblica. Una garanzia che ricorderebbe quella concessa da Cdp alle banche finanziatrici delle risoluzione delle quattro “banchette”. Ma in quel caso anche i detentori di obbligazioni subordinate vennero coinvolti nella copertura delle perdite. Ove costoro, questa volta, non fossero coinvolti, la seconda garanzia potrebbe essere bocciata dalla Ue come aiuto di Stato. Che cosa accadrà, allora?

Mucchetti: Etruria e Mps, i miracoli mancati di Renzi ci costano 800 milioni su Senatori PD.

Source: Senatori PD

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