Oltre 250mila italiani emigrano all’estero

By | luglio 10, 2017

Oltre 250mila italiani emigrano all’estero

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fonte: Il Sole 24 ORE

Giovambattista Vico parlava di corsi e ricorsi storici. Con questa formula il filosofo napoletano sintetizzava la capacità di certe situazioni di ripetersi nella vita degli essere umani. Il Dossier Statistico Immigrazione 2017 elaborato dal centro studi e ricerche Idos e Confronti registra una di queste situazioni: oggi gli emigrati italiani sono tanti quanti erano nell’immediato dopoguerra. In numero, oltre 250.000 l’anno. Corsi e ricorsi della storia, appunto.

Prima il calo poi la crisi del 2008 e l’inversione di tendenza
L’emigrazione degli italiani all’estero, dopo gli intensi movimenti degli anni ’50 e ’60, è andato ridimensionandosi negli anni ’70 e fortemente riducendosi nei tre decenni successivi, fino a collocarsi al di sotto delle 40.000 unità annue. Invece, a partire dalla crisi del 2008 e specialmente nell’ultimo triennio, le partenze hanno ripreso vigore e hanno raggiunto gli elevati livelli postbellici, quando erano poco meno di 300.000 l’anno gli italiani in uscita.

Oltre 114mila persone sono andate all’estero nel 2015
Sotto l’impatto dell’ultima crisi economica, che l’Italia fa ancora fatica a superare, i trasferimenti all’estero hanno raggiunto le 102.000 unità nel 2015 e le 114.000 unità nel 2016, mentre i rientri si attestano sui 30.000 casi l’anno.

La fuga dei cervelli
A emigrare – sottolinea il report – sono sempre più persone giovani con un livello di istruzione superiore. Tra gli italiani con più di 25 anni, registrati nel 2002 in uscita per l’estero, il 51% aveva la licenza media, il 37,1% il diploma e l’11,9% la laurea ma già nel 2013 l’Istat ha riscontrato una modifica radicale dei livelli di istruzione tra le persone in uscita: il 34,6% con la licenza media, il 34,8% con il diploma e il 30,0% con la laurea, per cui si può stimare che nel 2016, su 114.000 italiani emigrati, siano 39.000 i diplomati e 34.000 i laureati.

Germania e Regno Unito le mete preferite
Le destinazioni europee più ricorrenti sono la Germania e la Gran Bretagna; quindi, a seguire, l’Austria, il Belgio, la Francia, il Lussemburgo, i Paesi Bassi e la Svizzera (in Europa dove si indirizzano circa i tre quarti delle uscite) mentre, oltreoceano, l’Argentina, il Brasile, il Canada, gli Stati Uniti e il Venezuela.

L’investimento (perso) da parte dello Stato
Ogni italiano che emigra rappresenta un investimento per il paese (oltre che per la famiglia): 90.000 euro un diplomato, 158.000 o 170.000 un laureato (rispettivamente laurea triennale o magistrale) e 228.000 un dottore di ricerca, come risulta da una ricerca congiunta condotta nel 2016 da Idos e dall’Istituto di Studi Politici “S. Pio V” sulla base di dati Ocse.

I flussi effettivi sono ancora più elevati
A rendere ancora più allarmante il quadro tratteggiato da questo dossier è un’uteriore considerazione: i flussi effettivi sono ben più elevati rispetto a quelli registrati dalle anagrafi comunali, come risulta dagli archivi statistici dei paesi di destinazione, specialmente della Germania e della Gran Bretagna (un passaggio obbligato per chi voglia inserirsi in loco e provvedere alla registrazioni di un contratto, alla copertura previdenziale, all’acquisizione della residenza e così via).

Il centro studi: i dati Istat vanno aumentati di 2,5 volte
Il centro studi spiega che rispetto ai dati dello Statistisches Bundesamt tedesco e del registro previdenziale britannico (National Insurance Number), le cancellazioni anagrafiche rilevate in Italia rappresentano appena un terzo degli italiani effettivamente iscritti. Pertanto, i dati dell’Istat sui trasferimenti all’estero dovrebbero essere aumentati almeno di 2,5 volte e di conseguenza nel 2016 si passerebbe da 114.000 cancellazioni a 285.000 trasferimenti all’estero, un livello pari ai flussi dell’immediato dopoguerra e a quelli di fine Ottocento. Peraltro, si legge ancora nel dossier statistico, non va dimenticato che nella stessa Anagrafe degli Italiani Residenti all’Estero il numero dei nuovi registrati nel 2016 (225.663) è più alto rispetto ai dati Istat. Naturalmente, andrebbe effettuata una maggiorazione anche del numero degli espatriati ufficialmente nel 2008-2016, senz’altro superiore ai casi registrati (624.000).

L’Ocse: Italia ottava in classifica
Il problema dei tanti italiani che abbandonano l’Italia è stato segnalato qualche giorno fa anche dall’Ocse. Nell’ultimo report sui migranti l’Organizzazione per la cooperazione e lo sviluppo economici ha fatto presente che l’Italia è tornata a essere ai primi posti mondiali come Paese d’origine degli immigrati. Secondo l’Ocse, la Penisola è ottava nella graduatoria mondiale dei Paesi di provenienza di nuovi immigrati. Al primo posto c’è la Cina, davanti a Siria, Romania, Polonia e India. L’Italia è subito dopo il Messico e davanti a Viet Nam e Afghanistan, con un aumento degli emigrati dalla media di 87mila nel decennio 2005-14 a 154mila nel 2014 e a 171mila nel 2015, pari al 2,5% degli afflussi nell’Ocse. In 10 anni l’Italia è “salita” di 5 posti nel ranking di quanti lasciano il proprio Paese per cercare migliori fortune altrove.

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