Il futuro dell'Italia passa per il turismo #Turismo2030

By | dicembre 18, 2017

Il futuro dell'Italia passa per il turismo #Turismo2030

di Domenico De Masi

Per 200 anni, dalla metà del Settecento alla metà del Novecento, noi abbiamo attraversato un periodo -che chiamiamo per comodità “società industriale”-, in cui l’elemento principale, il centro della società era la produzione in grande serie di beni materiali, cioè automobili frigoriferi eccetera. Poi a partire dalla seconda guerra mondiale siamo entrati in una situazione molto diversa, in cui diventa centrale la produzione di beni immateriali, cioè servizi, informazioni, simboli, valori, estetica, e in cui tempo libero ha preso il sopravvento sul tempo di lavoro.

Adesso nella prospettiva di un ventenne ci sono praticamente più di 60 anni di vita, di cui un settimo appena sarà preso dal lavoro, e 6 settimi da tutto il resto. Quindi il turismo sta diventando un elemento fondamentale perché rappresenta uno dei modi principali, più culturalmente importanti e più economicamente importanti, per trascorrere il tempo libero.

Quanti erano i turisti qualche anno fa? Negli anni 70 erano circa mezzo miliardo, 500 milioni di persone che si spostavano ogni anno, o all’interno dei Paesi o tra un Paese e l’altro. Poi intorno al 2000 sono diventati, e oggi sono, circa un miliardo; nel 2030 saranno addirittura un miliardo e 800. Negli anni 70, quando erano solo mezzo miliardo, l’Italia era la prima meta al mondo, era il Paese in cui arrivano più turisti stranieri, seguita poi dalla Francia, e poi ancora dagli Stati Uniti. Oggi la situazione è cambiata, noi siamo al quinto posto dopo Francia, USA, Spagna e la Cina che ci ha superato, e siamo insidiati dall’Inghilterra e dal Messico. Quindi il problema primo di tutti è di non arretrare ulteriormente nella graduatoria internazionale, tenendo conto che oggi tutti i Paesi ricchi vorrebbero attrarre turisti dai Paesi emergenti, che sono quelli che oggi danno il maggiore gettito.

L’Italia ha la fortuna di avere tutta una serie di turismi: ha il turismo balneare, ha il turismo culturale che è importantissimo, ha il turismo religioso. Si calcola che circa 15 milioni di turisti vengano in Italia per motivi religiosi, per la presenza del Vaticano e di tutti gli altri attrattori religiosi, pensate ad Assisi o a Pietralcina. Ora il problema è capire tra 10/15 anni, quando i turisti saranno un miliardo e 800 milioni, chi si prenderà la fetta maggiore, e cosa significa “fetta maggiore”. La fetta maggiore nel turismo non equivale soltanto alla quantità, a quanti turisti vengono, ma che tipo di spesa fanno. Pensate che oggi un turista che va negli Stati Uniti spende in media circa 1000 euro al giorno, contro i 150 euro al giorno che spende in Italia. Quindi ci vogliono 10 turisti italiani per fare un turista americano.

E allora come si fa per prevedere tutto questo? Il Movimento 5 Stelle mi ha commissionato una ricerca, che ho condotto con l’aiuto di undici tra i migliori esperti italiani del settore, per capire appunto nel 2030 che cosa succederà, quanto sarà il turismo di elite, quanto il turismo di massa, quanto il turismo familiare; che genere di turismo, manageriale, culturale eccetera; che cosa bisogna fare per intervenire in questa situazione. Allo stato attuale il turismo offre circa il 10% del prodotto interno lordo del nostro Paese, che è già una cifra veramente rilevante. Però potremmo aumentare eguagliando per esempio la Spagna, e anche superandola. Di questo parleremo il giorno 20 a Milano in un convegno al quale parteciperanno I maggiori esponenti del mondo turistico italiano, per capire dalla ricerca quali suggerimenti vengono e che cosa si può fare. L’importante è passare da una programmazione di tipo pressapochista, a una programmazione invece perfettamente pensata sulla base scientifica di una ricerca particolarmente attendibile. Quindi il 20 a Milano discuteremo di tutto questo.

Scarica qui il volantino

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